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Saturday, 6 September 2014

Bookies Corner: Bristol City v Scunthorpe United

Last week easyodds.com tipster and lifelong Bristol City fan looked on course for a winning best bet but Kieran Agard came up with an air-shot after being teed up – but luckily for all of us City fans Aaron Wilbraham was on hand to stroke the ball in from right behind his new strike partner. He did however point out the value of 4/1 that a penalty would be notched!

Last week was a tremendous win and a brilliant away performance. A win against a side who had won six of their last seven home matches – and in the last minute too! Something we had failed to do in over two years!!! Can the Robins continue their great 11 match unbeaten run in League One? Keep reading below for Ross’ full betting preview…

"The bookies were busy yet again in the League One outright winner market – reinstalling us as joint favourites for the title along with Simon Grayson’s Preston North End - following our last-gasp victory last weekend. We are now a best price 5/1 to win the league.

It seems we face sides on the resurgence on a weekly basis! Much like Rochdale and Notts County before them, Scunthorpe had a terrible start to the season but are coming into this match on the back of two straight victories – so yet again we will be facing a side high in confidence!”

BRISTOL CITY – 5/6 (Bet365)
DRAW – 14/5 (Skybet)
SCUNTHORPE – 43/10 (Marathonbet)

A huge trend in the three matches at Ashton Gate so far this season has been tight matches with few goals. A 2-1 win, a 2-1 loss and a 0-0 stalemate are the current results in front of the City fans. We are yet to win any of our matches (home or away) by a two goal or more margin. We need to learn how to really break teams down.

Scunthorpe have already lost three of their eight matches by a two or bigger goal margin, so this could well be the match that we put a team to the sword. We are a best price 11/5 to win by two goals or more.

As mentioned goals are at a premium at Ashton Gate – we are averaging one goal per game at BS3. Aaron Wilbraham is top scorer in the whole league and no one has scored more than the experienced forward in a red shirt at Ashton Gate this term. He is a best price 8/5 to score (making him the market favourite).

The only other City player to net in front of the home fans is Joe Bryan. Less likely to start – he is a best price 11/2 to score.

Another interesting trend of Bristol City matches this season are early goals. In two of the home matches this season, the first goal has been scored within 10 minutes! You can get a best price of evens for the first goal being scored between 0-29 minutes.

A poor start to the season – four losses in their first six games – was a stark contrast to their stellar form last season in League Two. In fact, when Russ Wilcox took the helm at Glanford Park they went on an incredible 26 game unbeaten run – a world record for a new manager!

They have struggled defensively – much like we have – and have kept just two clean sheets in eight matches. With injury forcing their hand, they may have to play out of position full-backs or bring in the back from injury Eddie Nolan on Saturday. With this in mind both teams to score looks value at 10/11. Their attack has little trouble firing though, especially in recent weeks with the signing of League Two goal demon Billy Kee from Burton. With him and Paddy Madden up front and the experienced Gary McSheffrey behind them, they will certainly be a threat to the City defence.

They also have former Robin Jennison Myrie-Williams on their books. Whilst not a guaranteed first team starter, he is a best price of 5/1 to score.

Bristol City were 2-0 winners the last time Scunthorpe came to Ashton Gate. We have not lost to Scunny in any of our last six home ties against them. However, the biggest historic value I found from our matches versus the Iron was that back in 2006 Bas Savage SCORED against them in front of the now gone East End! His one and only Bristol City goal. Perhaps we will see a City player open their account come Saturday – El Abd anyone?!

As requested on otib.co.uk I have added a longshot feature to ‘Bookies Corner’ and this week I am going for a 3-1 City win at 15/1. Both teams I suspect will get on the scoresheet but I think with their leaky defence we can bang a few goals in and finally win by more than a single goal cushion!

Both teams to score @ 10/11 – BET NOW

I think it is time I hit a winner and I am going to go for a relative safe bet with my recommended tip – Scunny score but concede as do we and I believe the trend will continue on Saturday! Back both teams to score at 10/11.

*All prices supplied by www.easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Fri 5th September 2014*

As a footnote, it looks as if City are a popular choice in accumulators this weekend because the odds on City to win have been hammered down by most of the bookies. Let's hope the bookies have it right!

The Exiled Robin

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