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Friday, 26 September 2014

Bookies Corner: Bristol City v MK Dons

Last week Easyodds.com football tipster and City fan Ross Casey found a 49/20 winner by backing the draw in our match with Fleetwood. Whilst it is another point gained for our excellent start to the season – and retains our now 15 match unbeaten run in League One - the fact we drew despite holding a 3-1 lead is a little disappointing.

If we are coming into our match rueing the loss of two points, MK Dons are arriving in stellar form. ‘The franchise’ has been incredibly consistent in recent weeks, which has left them in second place – five points behind us with a game in hand.

We have passed every test handed to us in League One thus far but this could be the biggest test yet. Can the Robins continue their great 15 match unbeaten run in League One? It’s a huge clash between the two teams at the top of the league! Keep reading below for Ross’ full betting preview…

"The bookies were busy yet again in the League One outright winner market – last week they made us stand-alone favourites at 11/4 and we are still favourites but are now a best price of 5/2. The bookies are keeping with us!

MK Dons have a reputation of being the nearly men in League One after multiple play-off losses – but the current squad under Karl Robinson look the real deal. The bookies make them 8/1 to win League One – despite their current position they are behind three clubs in the market. Their matches this season have plenty of interesting trends we can look at so let’s get to it!”

BRISTOL CITY – 23/20 (Bet365)
MK DONS – 11/4 (Ladbrokes)
DRAW – 11/4 (BetVictor)

It doesn’t take a genius to see a trend in Bristol City’s matches that we score goals. In ten matches we have only failed to hit the net once and that was against Orient when Baldock’s goal was disallowed for no reason at all.

We have scored a mighty impressive tally of 13 goals in our last five games and even though most have been scrappy – how refreshing is it that we are now scoring chances like that and not being a whisker away or balls not falling to our strikers like we seemed to have in the past.

MK Dons have been even more extravagant with the amount of goals they have been hitting past teams! They have scored an almighty 20 goals in their last six games. With two free-scoring teams, this should mean that both teams will score at Ashton Gate on Saturday. That is a best price of 4/6 which could be a steal!

The over/under market is also definitely worth looking at. These trends don’t always work out – look at last weekend’s match against Fleetwood for that! A meeting of the best two defences in the league ended in a 3-3 draw! If you fancy these two in-form teams to cancel each other out, under 2.5 goals is available at 28/25. If you think this match will go to trend an even better price of 2/1 is available on over 3.5 goals. That bet has been a winning one in 63% of MK Dons matches this season.

Before we let in three goals to Fleetwood last weekend our defence had been water-tight. We had kept three clean sheets on the bounce before that match and have kept three clean sheets from four in the league at Ashton Gate. Keeping a side out with the scoring record of MK Dons will be extremely difficult but if you think we can do it odds of 23/10 are available.

If you follow my betting previews on Easyodds.com you will know that I am a huge fan of backing players to score against their former teams. Football narrative seems to enjoy these great stories – just see this week’s goals for Frank Lampard, Connor Sammon and Mohamed Diame for proof of that! For that reason I will probably be backing our top goalscorer Aaron Wilbraham to score against his former side.

He has now scored eight goals in nine games for the Robins and I believe he is value at 6/4 to score against his ex-teammates – just like super Sammy Baldock did last season! Kyle McFadzean – the centre half Sean O’Driscoll tried to sign for us will have his hands full against both Wilbraham and Agard.

I have already highlighted MK Dons’ attacking prowess in the City part of this preview but to highlight that again they have scored in each of their three away matches this season – and won two of those matches.

I actually think on the back of their amazing results they are a very good price at 11/4. I realise not many fans bet against their own teams but objectively looking at the facts that seems a very tempting best price.

Despite only drawing one game this season, taking them in the draw no bet market could prove fruitful for the more cautious punters out there. 43/25 is the best price in the market where you will get the win for an away victory or your money back in the case of a draw.

Of all of their goalscorers this year – of which there have been many – perhaps Benik Afobe is the man to most fear most. The on-loan Arsenal man has scored nine goals in 11 games and is available at 21/10 to score at Ashton Gate. Midfielder Deli Alli is getting rave reviews and is being scouted by the big guns – he has six goals in eight this season and will need to be stopped with Korey Smith most likely to track his runs from deep. Alli is 5/2 to score and looks value as he has scored in two out of three away games this term.

We have played MK Dons seven times in their short controversial history – and we have NEVER lost to them. Interestingly three of our last four meetings have ended 2-2. That is available at 14/1. Keep an eye on this match for the rematch at Stadium MK as every time a player scored in the home tie they then went on to score in the away tie for City. Sam Baldock in 2013, Steve Brooker in 2006 and Leroy Lita in 2005 so here’s hoping Wilbraham or Agard get on the scoresheet this weekend!

I genuinely do think that MK Dons do offer great value in this match – despite their awful record against us, so my long shot will be MK Dons to win and both teams to score at 24/5.

Deli Alli Anytime Scorer @ 5/2– BET NOW

I think the top prospect and player of the moment will cause us problems this weekend. His runs from deep will cause us difficulties – see the goals we conceded against Fleetwood for proof of that and a player at 5/2 to score with a scoring record of six goals in eight games is not to be sniffed at!

*All prices supplied by www.easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Fri 26th September 2014*

The Exiled Robin

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