Friday, 12 September 2014
Bookies Corner: Bristol City v Doncaster Rovers
The fine margins of football betting were shown again in last week’s recommended best bet as Gary McSheffrey’s first half effort hit the post, scuppering the both teams to score tip! Easyodds.com football tipster and City fan Ross Casey is back this week with another extensive betting preview on the weekend’s showdown with Doncaster.
Last week was a hard fought victory for the Robins against a resolute Scunthorpe side and after it took a set piece to get the first goal, we looked pretty comfortable thereafter in a 2-0 win. Can the Robins continue their great 12 match unbeaten run in League One? Keep reading below for Ross’ full betting preview…
"The bookies were busy yet again in the League One outright winner market – last week they made us joint favourites with Preston but we have been re-installed now as stand-alone favourites for the title with a best price of 4/1. Oh how to be on top! Somewhat surprisingly, current leaders Peterborough are a much bigger price of 7/1.
Doncaster are in 15th in League One after relegation from the Championship last season but as you will read later on – there is reason to be cautious ahead of this Ashton Gate clash for City fans expecting a home win.”
BEST MATCH ODDS:
BRISTOL CITY – 10/11 (Various)
DRAW – 13/5 (Various)
DONCASTER – 15/4 (Bet365)
As I pointed out in last week’s article – we had not won by two or more goals at Ashton Gate and highlighted the value in 11/5 on us to do so against Scunthorpe. Low and behold we came up trumps in that as we gained a solid 2-0 victory.
We have still yet to see the goals really flow at home – just the Colchester match saw over 2.5 goals scored – and this is largely due to the tactics used by away sides. Two backs of four are hard to break down and it is a case of being patient as opposition defences aim to frustrate us.
With this in mind it is also worth looking at both the over/under market and a Bristol City clean sheet. Back to back home clean sheets in largely unheard of for us Robins fans after years of defensive instability in the Championship – but that is what we have done in our last two outings.
Our best odds on a clean sheet are 8/5 and if you fancy another low scoring game at Ashton Gate, under 2.5 goals is available at 17/20.
Donny have been a Jekyll and Hyde team this season to the extreme! Yet to win a single match at home they have WON all four of their away games. This is incredibly pertinent when betting on this game I feel.
A side confident on the road clearly have a winning gameplan and are regimented in implementing it. Their 4-5-1 suits playing us as our midfield three will have personal battles and our roaming wing-backs will be double marked. I can see us playing a lot more direct for the likes of Aaron Wilbraham because of it.
In fact Paul Dickov has his side so in check that in their four wins on the road they have conceded just the one goal!! This puts added onus on the over/under market I advised in the Bristol City part of this piece.
They do have ‘Boom Boom’ Jamie McCombe in their squad but he has been used as a substitute in recent matches. Although we know fully well he is handy as an emergency striker late in games! The gangly former City rock is a best price of 16/1. Their forward Nathan Tyson will be remembered by City fans for his part in knocking out Dean Gerken back in the day – which resulted in Stefan Maierhofer taking the gloves! Tyson is a more likely scorer at 7/2.
Their home form is far from good compared – City fans will remember the days when we had the ‘fear’ of playing at home. However, their away form is exceptional and they look a huge price at 15/4. Those of you that like to play safer – Donny are 19/20 to win or draw here. A very good price for a side with a 100% away record.
HEAD TO HEADS:
Bristol City were 2-1 winners the last time Donny came to Ashton Gate. We have won four of our last five matches against them at home – the one blip coming from a Sean O’Driscoll and JET inspired 5-2 hammering back in 2010.
Jay Emmanuel-Thomas could be the game-changer from the bench if things are 0-0 heading into the final twenty minutes and the mercurial forward is 21/10 to score.
THE LONG SHOT:
This is an easy one this week – the long shot here is a Donny win. 15/4 on a side with four wins from four on the road is great value! On a caveat to this Paul Dickov was on commentary during Soccer Saturday for our match last week and will certainly have taken plenty of food for thought from the first half when Scunthorpe looked comfortable sitting in and dangerous on the break.
MY RECOMMENDED BET:
Doncaster Double Chance @ 19/20 – BET NOW
I think this offers good value. As much as I wish I am wrong from my heart – in my head it looks a great bet. Orient did a job on us at Ashton Gate and Donny have proved they can do similar with their four away wins this term. With a winning bet for either a Donny win or draw I think this offers the best possible chance of a winning bet at the best possible odds.
*All prices supplied by www.easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Fri 12th September 2014*
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