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Friday, 26 September 2014

Bookies Corner: Bristol City v MK Dons

Last week Easyodds.com football tipster and City fan Ross Casey found a 49/20 winner by backing the draw in our match with Fleetwood. Whilst it is another point gained for our excellent start to the season – and retains our now 15 match unbeaten run in League One - the fact we drew despite holding a 3-1 lead is a little disappointing.

If we are coming into our match rueing the loss of two points, MK Dons are arriving in stellar form. ‘The franchise’ has been incredibly consistent in recent weeks, which has left them in second place – five points behind us with a game in hand.

We have passed every test handed to us in League One thus far but this could be the biggest test yet. Can the Robins continue their great 15 match unbeaten run in League One? It’s a huge clash between the two teams at the top of the league! Keep reading below for Ross’ full betting preview…

"The bookies were busy yet again in the League One outright winner market – last week they made us stand-alone favourites at 11/4 and we are still favourites but are now a best price of 5/2. The bookies are keeping with us!

MK Dons have a reputation of being the nearly men in League One after multiple play-off losses – but the current squad under Karl Robinson look the real deal. The bookies make them 8/1 to win League One – despite their current position they are behind three clubs in the market. Their matches this season have plenty of interesting trends we can look at so let’s get to it!”

BRISTOL CITY – 23/20 (Bet365)
MK DONS – 11/4 (Ladbrokes)
DRAW – 11/4 (BetVictor)

It doesn’t take a genius to see a trend in Bristol City’s matches that we score goals. In ten matches we have only failed to hit the net once and that was against Orient when Baldock’s goal was disallowed for no reason at all.

We have scored a mighty impressive tally of 13 goals in our last five games and even though most have been scrappy – how refreshing is it that we are now scoring chances like that and not being a whisker away or balls not falling to our strikers like we seemed to have in the past.

MK Dons have been even more extravagant with the amount of goals they have been hitting past teams! They have scored an almighty 20 goals in their last six games. With two free-scoring teams, this should mean that both teams will score at Ashton Gate on Saturday. That is a best price of 4/6 which could be a steal!

The over/under market is also definitely worth looking at. These trends don’t always work out – look at last weekend’s match against Fleetwood for that! A meeting of the best two defences in the league ended in a 3-3 draw! If you fancy these two in-form teams to cancel each other out, under 2.5 goals is available at 28/25. If you think this match will go to trend an even better price of 2/1 is available on over 3.5 goals. That bet has been a winning one in 63% of MK Dons matches this season.

Before we let in three goals to Fleetwood last weekend our defence had been water-tight. We had kept three clean sheets on the bounce before that match and have kept three clean sheets from four in the league at Ashton Gate. Keeping a side out with the scoring record of MK Dons will be extremely difficult but if you think we can do it odds of 23/10 are available.

If you follow my betting previews on Easyodds.com you will know that I am a huge fan of backing players to score against their former teams. Football narrative seems to enjoy these great stories – just see this week’s goals for Frank Lampard, Connor Sammon and Mohamed Diame for proof of that! For that reason I will probably be backing our top goalscorer Aaron Wilbraham to score against his former side.

He has now scored eight goals in nine games for the Robins and I believe he is value at 6/4 to score against his ex-teammates – just like super Sammy Baldock did last season! Kyle McFadzean – the centre half Sean O’Driscoll tried to sign for us will have his hands full against both Wilbraham and Agard.

I have already highlighted MK Dons’ attacking prowess in the City part of this preview but to highlight that again they have scored in each of their three away matches this season – and won two of those matches.

I actually think on the back of their amazing results they are a very good price at 11/4. I realise not many fans bet against their own teams but objectively looking at the facts that seems a very tempting best price.

Despite only drawing one game this season, taking them in the draw no bet market could prove fruitful for the more cautious punters out there. 43/25 is the best price in the market where you will get the win for an away victory or your money back in the case of a draw.

Of all of their goalscorers this year – of which there have been many – perhaps Benik Afobe is the man to most fear most. The on-loan Arsenal man has scored nine goals in 11 games and is available at 21/10 to score at Ashton Gate. Midfielder Deli Alli is getting rave reviews and is being scouted by the big guns – he has six goals in eight this season and will need to be stopped with Korey Smith most likely to track his runs from deep. Alli is 5/2 to score and looks value as he has scored in two out of three away games this term.

We have played MK Dons seven times in their short controversial history – and we have NEVER lost to them. Interestingly three of our last four meetings have ended 2-2. That is available at 14/1. Keep an eye on this match for the rematch at Stadium MK as every time a player scored in the home tie they then went on to score in the away tie for City. Sam Baldock in 2013, Steve Brooker in 2006 and Leroy Lita in 2005 so here’s hoping Wilbraham or Agard get on the scoresheet this weekend!

I genuinely do think that MK Dons do offer great value in this match – despite their awful record against us, so my long shot will be MK Dons to win and both teams to score at 24/5.

Deli Alli Anytime Scorer @ 5/2– BET NOW

I think the top prospect and player of the moment will cause us problems this weekend. His runs from deep will cause us difficulties – see the goals we conceded against Fleetwood for proof of that and a player at 5/2 to score with a scoring record of six goals in eight games is not to be sniffed at!

*All prices supplied by www.easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Fri 26th September 2014*

The Exiled Robin

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Friday, 19 September 2014

Bookies Corner: Fleetwood Town v Bristol City

Last week Easyodds.com football tipster and City fan Ross Casey thought Doncaster would offer a stern test after winning all of their away matches this season but they came undone at Ashton Gate and were blown away 3-0.

That was a terrific result for the Robins and they then followed it up with yet another 3-0 romp away to out of sorts Port Vale on Tuesday night. Next up is our first ever trip to Fleetwood – a side two places off the play-offs but badly needing to turnaround a poor run of results.

Can the Robins continue their great 14 match unbeaten run in League One? Keep reading below for Ross’ full betting preview…

"The bookies were busy yet again in the League One outright winner market – last week they made us stand-alone favourites at 4/1 but after back-to-back 3-0 victories we are now a best price of 11/4. An incredible vote of confidence from the bookmakers!

Fleetwood carried on the crest of their wave to start the season terrifically well but have tailed off a little in recent weeks slipping to eighth – still way above their weight in terms of history. Their matches this season have plenty of interesting trends we can look at so let’s get to it!”

BRISTOL CITY – 31/20 (BetVictor)
FLEETWOOD – 11/5 (BoyleSports)
DRAW – 49/20 (MarathonBet)

After pointing out that we had only ever won by the single goal before the Scunthorpe game City have been running riot! A 2-0 win over the Iron was followed up by tremendous 3-0 victories over Donny and Port Vale.

This has been a truly brilliant start to the season – our best for over 100 years! Six wins and two draws mean we have 20 points and top the League One table unbeaten. A large part of our success has been the improved defence. We have kept three clean sheets on the bounce now and Frankie Fielding and company are a best price 9/4 to keep another on Saturday.

We have scored 15 goals this season and with the defence only conceding four goals thus far we look like a side that will continue to win or at least draw matches – a new experience for some younger City fans!

We have covered a minus one handicap in the last three matches and if you believe we can again win by more than one goal then the best price available is 4/1.

I have to be honest and say that when we signed Aaron Wilbraham I was pretty nonplussed – this was a player nearing the end of his career with one goal in 18 months at Crystal Palace. However, his chance meeting on holiday with Steve Cotterill has been a true blessing – he has led the line brilliantly and chipped in with seven goals. Only Chesterfield’s Eoin Doyle has more to his name in League One. Wilbz is 11/2 to finish the season as top scorer which would be a feat as Baldock was last season too. The target man is up against the huge Nathan Pond on Saturday which will be a real battle – but both he (19/10) and Aden Flint (12/1) are valid options in the anytime goalscorer market.

Fleetwood are an interesting side to look at in terms of betting. They are unbeaten at home – which is the main reason we are odds against to win (31/20 best price) but they are on a poor run of no win in six matches.

Their tight Highbury ground is a tough place to get a result, and their defence is excellent. They have only conceded four goals in eight matches. Their clean sheet value is dwindled slightly by the fact we are so free-scoring but that record cannot be ignored and some may fancy a Fleetwood shutout at 11/4.

Their forward line is not doing so well though – they have not scored in their last three matches and only scored seven goals in all of their 10 matches this term. Considering that there have only been five goals scored at Highbury all season the bet here could well be under 2.5 goals to be scored. A tight defence and a goal shy attack may well point towards that. Best price of 5/6 on that one.

We have never played at Highbury against Fleetwood. We have however beaten Arsenal at Highbury FOUR times in our history. Ave’ that Gooners!

I do believe this one will be tight and I think a draw may be on the cards personally – but I think with tight matches against well-drilled defences sometimes it takes a piece of individual brilliance to unlock a backline so I fancy Luke Freeman to score at 5/1. He has come close with his free-kicks plenty of times this season already and he could well come up trumps for us if things in open play aren’t going according to plan.

Draw @ 49/20 – BET NOW

I think this offers good value at 49/20. Fleetwood haven’t lost at home so far and we haven’t lost away. Whilst they are on a poor run and we are on an excellent one a draw would still be a decent result – see Rochdale’s improved form after we drew with them at Spotland!

*All prices supplied by www.easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Fri 19th September 2014*

The Exiled Robin

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The Inside Line: Fleetwood Town v Bristol City (20/09/2014)

And so it goes on. This stunning unbeaten run; no team in league one has scored more, no side has conceded fewer (Saturday’s opponents Fleetwood have an equally good defensive record), no other team in the league has 20 points already – its remarkable and for long-suffering City fans a true moment to savour!

It will of course all end at some point, perhaps on Saturday, perhaps a month or more from now, but let’s enjoy it whilst it lasts.

Ahead of the trip to the North West coast, Stu Radnedge takes a look at City’s stunning start to the season and adds a sprinkle of caution.

“Bristol City face another side on Saturday who earned promotion last year from League Two – Fleetwood Town.

Known as The Fishermen, the history behind the club is something which could easily be regarded as folklore – six promotions in the last 10 years have seen the club go from the depths of the non-league pyramid to attaining Football League status, and then up again to the “history making” status of League One football after winning the League Two play-off finals last year.

Romanticism aside (as great as it is to talk about the success of a club who have progressed from nowhere to League status) City will, no doubt, fancy their chances. The well circulated statistics of our season so far say it all – most goals scored, fewest conceded and a double figure positive goal difference for the first time since the end of the 2006/07 season – the  one when we got promoted from this league.

But, for me, it’s the stats that aren’t being circulated that matter the most. There have been four clean sheets (in eight games) already this year, with three in-a-row at the moment. Goals are coming from, what feels like, everywhere. Aden Flint, even though not our captain, is leading the defence and developing them into a much more solid unit and he’s also posing a threat at the other end of the pitch. Seven goals in eight games from Aaron Wilbraham is a solid return – if we feared we were losing a 20+ goal machine in the sale of Sam Baldock, we may already have his replacement.

Eight games into a season is a one-sixth of the way into the season. Statisticians would say, by law of averages and form, City will gain promotion at a canter.

But I’m taking a more pragmatic approach. Yes, Wolves ran away with it last year. Yes Arsenal’s unbeatables did it – so why can’t we? I like the optimism, I really do.

However, that time-old inner battle is taking place as my heart is saying we will but my brain is saying it won’t happen.

And the only thing that will stop us achieving is a lack of belief and confidence in our ability… which certainly isn’t the issue at the moment. The squad, not the team, has clearly bonded – with goal celebrations being as entertaining as the football!

Back to our opposition, Fleetwood began League One life in a very promising way. Top after three games, the wheels appeared to have  come off a little with three losses in a row (Morecambe in the Football League Trophy, Oldham and Crawley).  But a no-score draw at home on Wednesday with free scoring (of late) Barnsley could indicate the style of play City will have to endure on Saturday – a team aiming not to concede. We faced it against Scunthorpe and could face it again this weekend?

My thanks to Stu, it’s a tough challenge on Saturday that’s for sure, despite Fleetwood’s more recent form.  I can see a tight game and it may just take s stroke of luck to find a winner – fingers crossed it falls our way.


The Exiled Robin

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Tuesday, 16 September 2014

The Inside Line: Port Vale v Bristol City (16/09/2014)

Unbeaten in months, scoring goals, top of the league…who are this team they call the City?!

An excellent and hugely encouraging start to the season faces a testing five days with two away games, the first one of which comes tonight at Vale Park. 

Last time we came here we were at the opposite end of the table and struggling for points, but it was here, a couple of weeks further into last season which potentially proved a key moment, as Aden Flint’s back-pass in the 94th minute let in Lee Hughes to equalise and deny us our first win of a difficult season which had just started showing signs of promise in performances.  The team’s confidence took a visible knock after that moment and led to the palpable nervousness amongst players and fans as we approached the end of games for the months that followed – often causing the loss of further potential points.

This time around we travel up in very different spirits, with a different manager and a large number of different players.  Flint himself is a man transformed and goals are coming from all angles. Fans are talking of promotion, not transition and we venture north as worthy favourites – even if that is a bit of a scarily confident proposition!

Stu Radnedge caught up with Dave Johnson, who works in the media team at Vale Park, for this extensive review of Vale’s season so far.

“We go into Tuesday evening’s encounter with the league leaders a little nervous, given our recent results, though the performances haven’t quite been as bad as the results may suggest and there is still a feeling that Micky Adams has the ability, not to mention the players, who can turn things around soon - whether that recovery starts when the Robins are in town remains to be seen.

Everybody who is particularly fond of Port Vale has been through some harrowing times in the not too distant past, and also some uplifting times to add to that, it has to be said. The club went into into administration and the doom and gloom merchants had a field day. This was soon followed by a change of ownership and there was renewed optimism.

What followed was quite remarkable by Vale standards with Micky Adams guiding the team to promotion on extremely limited resources and then with the bookies predicting Vale to drop straight back into League Two, against all the odds Vale finished a more than respectable ninth last season.

Back to normal then when everybody was left sweating about the future of the Vale boss when his offer of a new contract several months previously seemed to have been withdrawn – or was it? After months of uncertainty he finally penned a new deal and then began to look to recruit after several key players had moved on to pastures new and with a large number of players out of contract, the uncertainty returned.

Micky worked hard on what was a small budget when compared to several other League One clubs and managed to make some impressive signings. Surely the bookies had got it wrong when they had Vale amongst the favourites for the drop once again?

An opening day draw at home to Walsall was inconclusive, but then Vale gave the whole of Burslem and the surrounding area a lift with a terrific and convincing display against one of the teams widely tipped for a quick return to the Championship. Vale went to Doncaster with even the most optimistic of Vale supporters hoping Vale could avoid a heavy defeat.

What came next shocked everybody as Vale gave what was an almost perfect performance as Doncaster were made to look average as Vale stormed into a 3-0 half time lead, with everything clicking into place on the field of play. Yes, the home side pulled one back in the second half, but the result never came into question.

A disappointing performance at Oldham three days later was surely the result of tired legs and every Vale fan was against full of optimism, with many of them daring to suggest Vale were real play-off contenders. That seems to have changes once again now after a string of disappointing results.

Whisper it quietly, but there are a small number of the fans who are starting to blame everything on the manager, suggesting he isn’t up to the job! A ridiculous claim I ever there was one. Well known for his motivational skills and his insistence on hard work on the training ground, if anybody is capable of turning things around, he is the man who can.

Five defeats on the bounce are bound to affect confidence and see the doubters start to make themselves heard, but let us look at the five games in question, starting with the home defeat to Notts County – a game in which the visitors took the lead thanks to a first half deflection and were then battered in the second half when even County fans thought Vale were unfortunate not to score four or five. Another goal followed for the visitors, when Sam Johnson was beaten by a wicked deflection and Although Vale lost the game, nobody was too concerned.

A home defeat to Cardiff City in the Capital One Cup followed just three days later, but Vale had made several changes and the result was kind of accepted as the important thing was to get back on track in the league. Vale soon had that opportunity, again with a home game, this time against a newly promoted Chesterfield side fielding a handful of former Vale players.

The performance just wasn’t up to scratch to be honest and the Spireites deserved the three points, leaving Micky Adams and Vale supporters scratching their head, wondering just what had gone so wrong within the space of eight days. Three home fixtures – three defeats, and the prospect of an away trip to then league leaders Peterborough United was to follow.  Vale quietened the home crowd at London Road with a spirited display and again spirits were lifted with Vale on top during the first half an hour of the game, but defensive mistakes again proved costly. Two “worldies” and a headed goal when the marking was nowhere to be seen dampened spirits and although new loan signing Jordan Slew pulled a goal back and went close to a second, Vale returned home empty handed.

Still, with a local derby against near-neighbours Crewe Alexandra to come, everything would turn out fine and Vale would once again come good, after all, Crewe were rooted to the foot of the table without a single point and were there for the taking. Vale had already sold all of their allocation of tickets and the away fans filled one side and one end of the ground as they anticipated three points and a comfortable victory.

It took just six minutes for the home side to take the lead and when they grabbed a second goal in the 29th minute, Vale supporters sat there in shock and disbelief. The unthinkable was happening and if the gates had been opened, there could well have been more than a few who would have thrown themselves in front of a train at the nearby train station.

Jordan Slew managed to pull a goal back before half time, following up after his spot kick was saved and Vale looked a different outfit in the second half, but they couldn’t but an equaliser and everybody went home unhappy to say the least. You can bet there were a few dogs kicked on Saturday night and a large number of domestic disputes were started way before Match of the Day came on the box that night. There is unlikely to be a population explosion on Stoke on Trent in nine months’ time!

So what next? An in-form Bristol City come to Vale Park in confident mood, and rightly so. Many had tipped the Robins to be amongst the front runners last season and were more than surprised when that didn’t materialise. Unfortunately, from a Vale point of view of course, Steve Cotterill’s side arrive unbeaten in seven League One games so far and Vale have now lost five on the bounce. This game is only going to go one way . . . .  or is it?”

My extreme thanks to Stu and Dave for this cracking read, let’s hope the two teams respective form carries on for at least one more match and we can return down the M5 with all three points.


The Exiled Robin

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Saturday, 13 September 2014

The Inside Line: Bristol City v Doncaster, 13/09/2014

Stu Radnedge picks out his key battle ahead of City's match with away-day specialists Doncaster on Saturday.

"When you’re undefeated at this stage in the season it’s easy to start to dream of what could be at the end of the season. As one of seven teams in the football league still yet to experience that bitter taste of defeat – City find themselves in the top two and loving League One life.

Saturday’s visit of Doncaster, however, is a real acid test – a match against a side relegated from the Championship last season.
One Direction’s Louis Tomlinson being signed, as what can only have been a massive publicity stunt, on a non-contract basis wasn’t enough to save the club from relegation. The 'pop-star', and I use that term loosely, was apparently misled as his takeover bid for the club failed.
Boardroom antics aside, the Donny team have begun League One life in a mixed way – not very good at home but more than competent away (won four away – drew one and lost two at home). So the arrival of Rovers at the Gate will certainly be a test to see just how “together” and “high spirited” the Robins are.
Doncaster have, as I’m sure you’ll all recall, been somewhat of a yo-yo club between League One and the Championship, and the talent in the squad (with names like James Coppinger, Nathan Tyson, Richie Wellens) includes former Bristol City defender big Jamie McCombe.
For me, the result will be decided by two defenders – Mark Little (City) and Cedric Evina. Both players like to get forward – that, for City fans, can not be disputed after we have all seen the devastating impact Little has had already this year when he charges forward. But, Donny manager Paul Dickov will have done his research ahead of this match seeing as the club are so good on their travels.
The 22-year-old Evina will, no doubt, look to exploit the gaps left behind Little when he’s on one of those runs, and it will be an entertaining fight on Saturday to see who lands the knockout punch.
Little has spoken on the official club website ahead of the match and appears to, for me, clearly set out that we are gunning for promotion (if that could ever be doubted with the squad we have assembled) and nothing is going to stand in our way…
But that is easier said than done. Performances and results matter – but which of those two is more important is not for me to say! But, for me, it would be nice to see Agard bag a goal and get something on his tally.
He played in a trial match for Rotherham, against Donny, and later signed for the club. Fingers crossed he puts in a performance to enable City fans to realise, and rest assured, that there is life after a certain Sam Baldock and goals are back on the menu in BS3"

Friday, 12 September 2014

Bookies Corner: Bristol City v Doncaster Rovers

The fine margins of football betting were shown again in last week’s recommended best bet as Gary McSheffrey’s first half effort hit the post, scuppering the both teams to score tip! Easyodds.com football tipster and City fan Ross Casey is back this week with another extensive betting preview on the weekend’s showdown with Doncaster.

Last week was a hard fought victory for the Robins against a resolute Scunthorpe side and after it took a set piece to get the first goal, we looked pretty comfortable thereafter in a 2-0 win. Can the Robins continue their great 12 match unbeaten run in League One? Keep reading below for Ross’ full betting preview…

"The bookies were busy yet again in the League One outright winner market – last week they made us joint favourites with Preston but we have been re-installed now as stand-alone favourites for the title with a best price of 4/1. Oh how to be on top! Somewhat surprisingly, current leaders Peterborough are a much bigger price of 7/1.

Doncaster are in 15th in League One after relegation from the Championship last season but as you will read later on – there is reason to be cautious ahead of this Ashton Gate clash for City fans expecting a home win.”

BRISTOL CITY – 10/11 (Various)
DRAW – 13/5 (Various)
DONCASTER – 15/4 (Bet365)

As I pointed out in last week’s article – we had not won by two or more goals at Ashton Gate and highlighted the value in 11/5 on us to do so against Scunthorpe. Low and behold we came up trumps in that as we gained a solid 2-0 victory.

We have still yet to see the goals really flow at home – just the Colchester match saw over 2.5 goals scored – and this is largely due to the tactics used by away sides. Two backs of four are hard to break down and it is a case of being patient as opposition defences aim to frustrate us.

With this in mind it is also worth looking at both the over/under market and a Bristol City clean sheet. Back to back home clean sheets in largely unheard of for us Robins fans after years of defensive instability in the Championship – but that is what we have done in our last two outings.

Our best odds on a clean sheet are 8/5 and if you fancy another low scoring game at Ashton Gate, under 2.5 goals is available at 17/20.

Donny have been a Jekyll and Hyde team this season to the extreme! Yet to win a single match at home they have WON all four of their away games. This is incredibly pertinent when betting on this game I feel.

A side confident on the road clearly have a winning gameplan and are regimented in implementing it. Their 4-5-1 suits playing us as our midfield three will have personal battles and our roaming wing-backs will be double marked. I can see us playing a lot more direct for the likes of Aaron Wilbraham because of it.

In fact Paul Dickov has his side so in check that in their four wins on the road they have conceded just the one goal!! This puts added onus on the over/under market I advised in the Bristol City part of this piece.

They do have ‘Boom Boom’ Jamie McCombe in their squad but he has been used as a substitute in recent matches. Although we know fully well he is handy as an emergency striker late in games! The gangly former City rock is a best price of 16/1. Their forward Nathan Tyson will be remembered by City fans for his part in knocking out Dean Gerken back in the day – which resulted in Stefan Maierhofer taking the gloves! Tyson is a more likely scorer at 7/2.

Their home form is far from good compared – City fans will remember the days when we had the ‘fear’ of playing at home. However, their away form is exceptional and they look a huge price at 15/4. Those of you that like to play safer – Donny are 19/20 to win or draw here. A very good price for a side with a 100% away record.

Bristol City were 2-1 winners the last time Donny came to Ashton Gate. We have won four of our last five matches against them at home – the one blip coming from a Sean O’Driscoll and JET inspired 5-2 hammering back in 2010.

Jay Emmanuel-Thomas could be the game-changer from the bench if things are 0-0 heading into the final twenty minutes and the mercurial forward is 21/10 to score.

This is an easy one this week – the long shot here is a Donny win. 15/4 on a side with four wins from four on the road is great value! On a caveat to this Paul Dickov was on commentary during Soccer Saturday for our match last week and will certainly have taken plenty of food for thought from the first half when Scunthorpe looked comfortable sitting in and dangerous on the break.

Doncaster Double Chance @ 19/20 – BET NOW
I think this offers good value. As much as I wish I am wrong from my heart – in my head it looks a great bet. Orient did a job on us at Ashton Gate and Donny have proved they can do similar with their four away wins this term. With a winning bet for either a Donny win or draw I think this offers the best possible chance of a winning bet at the best possible odds.

*All prices supplied by www.easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Fri 12th September 2014*

The Exiled Robin

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Saturday, 6 September 2014

Bookies Corner: Bristol City v Scunthorpe United

Last week easyodds.com tipster and lifelong Bristol City fan looked on course for a winning best bet but Kieran Agard came up with an air-shot after being teed up – but luckily for all of us City fans Aaron Wilbraham was on hand to stroke the ball in from right behind his new strike partner. He did however point out the value of 4/1 that a penalty would be notched!

Last week was a tremendous win and a brilliant away performance. A win against a side who had won six of their last seven home matches – and in the last minute too! Something we had failed to do in over two years!!! Can the Robins continue their great 11 match unbeaten run in League One? Keep reading below for Ross’ full betting preview…

"The bookies were busy yet again in the League One outright winner market – reinstalling us as joint favourites for the title along with Simon Grayson’s Preston North End - following our last-gasp victory last weekend. We are now a best price 5/1 to win the league.

It seems we face sides on the resurgence on a weekly basis! Much like Rochdale and Notts County before them, Scunthorpe had a terrible start to the season but are coming into this match on the back of two straight victories – so yet again we will be facing a side high in confidence!”

BRISTOL CITY – 5/6 (Bet365)
DRAW – 14/5 (Skybet)
SCUNTHORPE – 43/10 (Marathonbet)

A huge trend in the three matches at Ashton Gate so far this season has been tight matches with few goals. A 2-1 win, a 2-1 loss and a 0-0 stalemate are the current results in front of the City fans. We are yet to win any of our matches (home or away) by a two goal or more margin. We need to learn how to really break teams down.

Scunthorpe have already lost three of their eight matches by a two or bigger goal margin, so this could well be the match that we put a team to the sword. We are a best price 11/5 to win by two goals or more.

As mentioned goals are at a premium at Ashton Gate – we are averaging one goal per game at BS3. Aaron Wilbraham is top scorer in the whole league and no one has scored more than the experienced forward in a red shirt at Ashton Gate this term. He is a best price 8/5 to score (making him the market favourite).

The only other City player to net in front of the home fans is Joe Bryan. Less likely to start – he is a best price 11/2 to score.

Another interesting trend of Bristol City matches this season are early goals. In two of the home matches this season, the first goal has been scored within 10 minutes! You can get a best price of evens for the first goal being scored between 0-29 minutes.

A poor start to the season – four losses in their first six games – was a stark contrast to their stellar form last season in League Two. In fact, when Russ Wilcox took the helm at Glanford Park they went on an incredible 26 game unbeaten run – a world record for a new manager!

They have struggled defensively – much like we have – and have kept just two clean sheets in eight matches. With injury forcing their hand, they may have to play out of position full-backs or bring in the back from injury Eddie Nolan on Saturday. With this in mind both teams to score looks value at 10/11. Their attack has little trouble firing though, especially in recent weeks with the signing of League Two goal demon Billy Kee from Burton. With him and Paddy Madden up front and the experienced Gary McSheffrey behind them, they will certainly be a threat to the City defence.

They also have former Robin Jennison Myrie-Williams on their books. Whilst not a guaranteed first team starter, he is a best price of 5/1 to score.

Bristol City were 2-0 winners the last time Scunthorpe came to Ashton Gate. We have not lost to Scunny in any of our last six home ties against them. However, the biggest historic value I found from our matches versus the Iron was that back in 2006 Bas Savage SCORED against them in front of the now gone East End! His one and only Bristol City goal. Perhaps we will see a City player open their account come Saturday – El Abd anyone?!

As requested on otib.co.uk I have added a longshot feature to ‘Bookies Corner’ and this week I am going for a 3-1 City win at 15/1. Both teams I suspect will get on the scoresheet but I think with their leaky defence we can bang a few goals in and finally win by more than a single goal cushion!

Both teams to score @ 10/11 – BET NOW

I think it is time I hit a winner and I am going to go for a relative safe bet with my recommended tip – Scunny score but concede as do we and I believe the trend will continue on Saturday! Back both teams to score at 10/11.

*All prices supplied by www.easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Fri 5th September 2014*

As a footnote, it looks as if City are a popular choice in accumulators this weekend because the odds on City to win have been hammered down by most of the bookies. Let's hope the bookies have it right!

The Exiled Robin

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Friday, 5 September 2014

Scunthorpe Telegraph: 'Spy in the Camp'

Ahead of this weekend's match with Scunthorpe United, their local paper - the Scunthorpe Telegraph - contacted me to do an interview which they title 'Spy in the Camp'.

There were questions on everything from our current form, what happened last season, our star man this time around and on Sam Baldock's loss.

The link to the piece can be found here: http://www.scunthorpetelegraph.co.uk/SPY-CAMP-Bristol-City-v-Scunthorpe-United/story-22870791-detail/story.html

Thanks for reading!

The Exiled Robin

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