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Friday, 22 August 2014

Bookies Corner: Rochdale v Bristol City

Last week easyodds.com tipster and lifelong Bristol City fan Ross Casey did not hit his best bet, but did point out the value in both teams to score when the Robins hosted Colchester. However, after starting the season with a 41/20 winner, the column is still in profit – here’s hoping he can pluck another winner from the trip to Rochdale.

The Robins remain unbeaten after securing a 0-0 draw on Tuesday night against promotion hopefuls Leyton Orient, but it could have been a maximum of nine points had it not been for a poor refereeing decision which ruled out a Sam Baldock goal. Can City remain unbeaten in what I like to call the Bamberdele Adebola derby? Or will Dale pull off the scalp by beating the favourites for the title? Keep reading below for Ross’ full betting preview…

"The controversially dropped points on Tuesday night have meant that City slipped from the top of the table to third – replaced by League One newcomers Fleetwood Town. City remain favourites to win the league though, their best price has actually shortened from 6/1 to 11/2 with the ever excellent value Marathonbet. This means that we are now the side to beat in League One and matches like this one, against newly promoted Rochdale in the humble surroundings of Spotland, will become even more difficult in my opinion.

Keith Hill’s Rochdale side started their season with three losses in a row – scoring just once in the process, but they sprung to life on Tuesday night hitting Crewe for five in a terrific 5-2 away win. That is sure to breed a lot of confidence going in to this game, and I am sure Steve Cotterill is aware of that! They are still third favourites for the drop however, with best odds of 9/4.

BRISTOL CITY – 29/20 (Bet365)
ROCHDALE – 11/5 (Ladbrokes)
DRAW – 12/5 (Multiple Bookies)

The big change to City this week has been the signing of Kieran Agard from Rotherham. The pacy forward – who can also operate and score from the wing was signed on Thursday after a high profile chase by the club. Landsdown and Cotterill have got their man and now it’s down to the management team to try and fit him in the starting line-up. After a hard fought midweek match, it’s possible that he may start as he will be fresher than some of those players that played two games in a week. He netted 26 goals last season and is a best price of 7/4 to score at Spotland.

Although there was a great deal of frustration about the result on Tuesday night because of the disallowed goal, the big positive in my eyes was the fact that City kept a clean sheet. That is the first of the season and something that the Robins need more of. With the attacking ability of the side at this level, they are more often than not going to net a goal. Therefore if the defence can keep a clean sheet that will guarantee points. A City clean sheet away at Rochdale is a best price of 9/4 with Bet365.

Despite last Tuesday’s 0-0 draw – in which Orient had a game plan and it worked, City usually are involved in ties where both teams score. Rochdale netted five last time out, so you would have to assume that both teams will net in this one. 8/11 is the best price on offer in this market with BetVictor.

In preparation for this match I had all of the statistics ready about Rochdale being a side missing last season’s goal machine Scott Hogan losing games and scoring no goals. Then they went and beat Crewe 5-2 and blew all of that out of the water!

That was an incredible result and one that no one saw coming, but they do concede goals regularly and that is something City can take advantage of. They have conceded seven goals in their four matches this season – with their last two matches going over 2.5 goals. City have had three matches go over 2.5 goals this term – so that could well be a decent bet. Bet365 is the company offering the best odds there, with 19/20 on the table.

Matt Done was the surprising hat-trick hero on Tuesday night netting a trio of strikes. I say it was a surprise because those were his first goals in over two years of first-team football! Funny old game isn’t it, football? He is a best price of 6/1 to score against the Robins.

City have played Rochdale just four times! We are perfectly even too – both sides have scored a victory over another and twice they have drawn. Interestingly, goals have been at a premium between these teams – just four goals have been scored in all fixtures.

I believe that the bookies have been quite generous with our price – if Rochdale had not won on Tuesday night I think we would have been evens or odds on to win this match. Thanks to their big win, they have offered us City fans better odds and I think they offer good value. Going on that and history, City to win and under 2.5 goals looks a great shout!

Bristol City to win @ 29/20 – BET NOW
I think that with a healthy frustration in our bellies and the fact Rochdale hit five in midweek – the team will go into this match full of desire and respect for the opposition. This is the perfect combination to avoid the entitlement we have seen in the past for matches like these. I think the odds on a City win are generous and with Agard coming in too there is now competition for places and an eagerness to win the three points.

Back another Robins win at 29/20.

*All prices supplied by www.easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Fri 22nd August 2014*

The Exiled Robin

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