Thursday, 14 August 2014
Bookies Corner: Bristol City v Colchester
Last week Easyodds.com tipster and lifelong Bristol City fan Ross Casey continued his hot streak in the bookies corner with a 41/20 winning best bet. His City draw no bet tip proved correct as the Robins ran away 2-1 winners at Bramall Lane against pre-season favourites Sheffield United.
He returns here ahead of the first league game at the newly three-sided Ashton Gate as Colchester arrive following a draw and a loss from their opening games. Can Bristol City make it two league wins on the trot at the start of the season for the first time since the 2001/02 campaign? Keep reading below for Ross’ full betting preview…
"The win at Sheffield United changed the betting and say it quietly, but the Robins are now the bookies’ favourites to win League One – with a best price of 6/1 available. This will bring with it a lot of added pressure – something our fringe players failed to handle on Tuesday night at Ashton Gate in the Capital One Cup when we were bested yet again at home in the first round of the cup by Oxford.
Colchester came from behind to salvage a home draw with little Lee Johnson’s Oldham side in their opening weekend and then lost 4-0 at the Valley to Charlton in the cup. The bookies don’t much fancy Joe Dunne’s side this season – they have been made second favourites for relegation behind Crewe with a best price of 13/8 available.
BEST MATCH ODDS:
BRISTOL CITY – 7/10 (BetVictor)
DRAW – 3/1 (Boylesports)
COLCHESTER – 5/1 (MarathonBet)
A bright start was key to the victory at Bramall Lane last weekend. Getting their noses in front, the Robins put pressure on the home side from the start with Mark Little’s foraging runs causing problems and Aaron Wilbrahimovic looking every inch a Premier League player.
Big changes were made to the starting XI against Oxford in the Capital One Cup match on Tuesday but the early result was the same – a quickfire Bristol City goal. I think this is a decent trend to look at for this match with City to score first at 8/15 or the half-time result going the Robins’ way at 13/10.
There are clearly still question marks over the City team – despite the plaudits from critics, bookies and the fans themselves. The 3-5-2 seems to leave a lot of space in the wide areas for opposition wingers and Frankie Fielding proved on Saturday that he struggles with aerial battles and distribution at times – whilst still being a brilliant shot-stopper.
Both teams to score was a strong winner for plenty of City games last season – and both matches this season have gone the same way. You can get a best price of 20/21 on both teams to score in this encounter.
As mentioned earlier in the piece, the bookies don’t think the U’s will be up to much this season in League One and the fact they are yet to win a match this term (albeit two games in) doesn’t do much to discount that train of thought.
They shipped four in midweek against better opposition, but crucially for City fans, their captain Magnus Okuonghae was sent off in that match and will miss the tie on Saturday. Not only is Magnus a commanding centre half and leader – he is also a goal threat. He scored against City last season and got on the scoresheet on the opening day of this campaign.
His loss could be pivotal and you may be tempted to back City in the handicap market because of his absence. The Robins are odds-on to win the game but if you back them in the handicap market with a minus one start you can get odds of 15/8. So if City win by two goals or more you are quids in!
The interesting history angle from a Colchester point of view is that it will be the return of Freddie Sears to Ashton Gate – he of the ‘phantom’ goal fame back in 2009. He scored a perfectly valid goal for Crystal Palace, but the referee chalked it off thinking it hit the boardings behind the goal. He is a best price of 15/4 to score (and for it to count) in this match.
HEAD TO HEADS:
Colchester actually have a decent record at Ashton Gate in recent years. They have drawn with City on each of their last four visits to BS3 and a draw here is a best price of 3/1. The last time Bristol City notched a home win against Colchester was back in 2004 where a single Marc Goodfellow strike was enough to take all three points. Former Robins loanee Craig Fagan was sent off late on in that tie incidentally!
In fact, City have only beaten Colchester four times in their last 15 attempts which may have some feeling squeamish by our short price of 7/10 to win this game (my editor Simon Hopper included).
MY RECOMMENDED BET:
I think with a raft of changes to our starting XI we will go straight for the throat again in this match – just as we have done in our opening two fixtures. A first half lead looks on the cards with their influential captain out of this game through suspension and the likes of Wade Elliott, Luke Freeman, Aden Flint, Korey Smith, Aaron Wilbraham and Mark Little likely to return to our starting line-up.
Back another quick Robins start at 13/10.
*All prices supplied by www.easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Thu 14th August 2014*
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