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Tuesday, 5 August 2014

2014-15 Football League One betting preview with easyodds.com

League One Betting Questions

With just a few days to go until the start of the new football league season, Easyodds.com’s top football tipsters Simon Hopper and Tom Powell have joined forces with the blog to answer your betting questions about all things Bristol City and the upcoming League One season!

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We start with the obvious question, how are Bristol City going to fare this season – Mat Hynds on Facebook asked if there was any point betting on anyone else to win the league! [ER: We haven’t won a league title in 50 (fifty) years!]
Simon Hopper: Given Bristol City never win leagues (!) their straight ‘To Be Promoted’ odds of 3/1 make much more appeal.  As for the rest, Sheffield United are worthy favourites at 11/2 and I don’t see anyone catching them (though City should chase them home).

Tom Powell: Yes, there is some point in betting on someone else to win the league. While City will be much improved on last season I think 17/2 is a touch too short on the Robins finishing top this season and there’s better to be value to be had elsewhere in this market.

So onto @Lockuptipster’s question, about who are the best bets for the top and bottom of the league?
SH: Promotion – Not just saying this for brownie points (honest!) but Bristol City at 3/1 look the best value. They should keep improving under Steve Cotterill and the transfer business looks very astute (Luke Freeman from Stevenage could be sensational if he can realise his potential at Ashton Gate). Relegation – Crewe are worthy favourites at 6/4. A club in obvious regression and their transfer business has been uninspiring. Bristol City’s best bet position – I think they’ll finish runners-up to Sheffield United (what an opening weekend clash that is!). Top Six – I’d have a look at Barnsley (9/4) for reasons mentioned below.

TP: Promotion – I think Leyton Orient will go well this term and look too big a price at 5/1 to be promoted this season. They finished third last term and look better equipped to mount another assault on the top two spots in 2014/15 with Moses Odubajo the only big name loss in terms of outgoings.
Relegation – Gillingham are priced at 5/2 to drop down to the fourth tier and that looks a worthy wager with Peter Taylor’s side having lost half of their matches last season while they also had the second worst defensive record in the division last campaign.

Talking of Orient, although it doesn’t always work out, I wondered whether it was worth catching the odds on them now before they spend much more of their Italian money?
SH: Leyton Orient’s business has indeed been eye-catching but clubs who throw money at a Football League club aren’t guaranteed instant success (West Ham and QPR failed to win the Championship in recent seasons despite their respective riches while Fleetwood were very well gambled for League Two recently and didn’t land the money). Russell Slade has to weld these new boys together with the existing players and I think 11/1 is about right on them winning the division.

TP: Yes, it is well worth backing Leyton Orient who finished third last season without big financial backing. They are only going to be stronger this season and are too big a price in the outright winner and promotion markets.

Q: Handicaps (where the favourites are given 0 points and everyone else is given a ‘start’ with extra points) are always good for value – if you pick the right team! Does anyone stand out?
SH: Barnsley +11 at 18/1 doesn’t look too bad. Relegated Championship clubs have an increasingly good record in League One (four of the last six champions have come from the second tier) and the Yorkshire outfit look the better equipped than Doncaster and Yeovil to go straight back up again.

TP: As will be quite evident from my above answers, Leyton Orient +9 looks a decent wager. Orient are more than likely to add further players to their already solid squad thanks to some substantial financial backing and after finishing third last season they are sure to be well in the promotion race come next May.

Next up we move onto individuals and the always popular top scorer market.  Posh fan @Jamie_Jones wants to know whether Conor Washington will be the top scorer whilst most City fans will want to know if super Sammy Baldock can make it a double. Is anyone else in contention?
SH: Conor Washington certainly caught the eye in the second half of last season at Peterborough, he’s had a few months to get used to League One football and he plays for a Posh side who always create chances. I think 50/1 is not a bad price at all, but Sam Baldock (9/1) is my selection. He won this market last year with 24 goals and given City should be a better side this season his credentials are obvious (just don’t sell him!). I wouldn’t look at anyone else in that market.

TP: There are plenty of players capable of winning the League One Golden Boot though a handful of the players in the market may not even be in this division come the start of September. Conor Washington’s five in 19 for his new club didn’t exactly give me the impression he can finish top scorer this term though I expect him to do well for Peterborough. I’d be more inclined to back Joe Garner at 10/1 with the Preston man having netted 19 in 32 for his club last season plus I expect Preston to do well and score plenty of goals this season. The danger is he is transferred between now and September.

So is it worth waiting to bet on this one until after September 1st (transfer deadline day), risking much lower odds if a favourite gets 4/5 early goals and stays?
SH: Personally I’d play this market in pre-season. There are too many imponderables once the action starts (injuries, transfers, form) – it’s much easier to find the value now.
View The Best League One Top Scorer Odds

Are there any general more quirky, unusual bets people may not know about and is there any good value amongst them? As per the answers above, I quite like Orient 9/2 to finish top southern club with SkyBet?
SH: Top relegated team is one that interests me and I think Barnsley (13/8) should win. Their defence was diabolical last term but Danny Wilson has got rid of a lot of players and should be capable of shoring them up. Sam Winnall from Scunthorpe looks an excellent signing as well who should adequately replace the departing Chris O’Grady.

TP: Had the Sky Blues of Coventry not been deducted 10 points last season they’d have finished ninth with 61 points, four places higher than Walsall, their nearest rivals in the top Midlands team market.

And finally what about any more Bristol City specials?  1/50 to stay up is quite remarkable given our last few seasons!
SH: There’s a top South West club market, where City are lumped in with Yeovil and Swindon. City are the 4/9 jollies there, with Yeovil 10/3 and Swindon 9/2 if you fancy some semi-local bragging rights! Or if you’re a pessimist then why don’t you back City to be relegated at a best price 28/1, then if the unthinkable happens at least the pain can be eased somewhat….

TP: There aren’t a great deal of City specials but some solid prices available. They should finish in the top six so odds of 5/6 on that happening could be worth lumping on, though I hate to repeat myself but further down that market Leyton Orient are available at 5/4!

My thanks to Simon and Tom and you can check out a huge variety of odds on League One at www.easyodds.com.

Plenty more positivity for City in the above.  Is it our time?

The Exiled Robin

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