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Thursday, 17 April 2014

Bookies Corner: Bristol City v Notts County

In a new article for The Exiled Robin, lifelong Bristol City fan and easyodds.com football tipster Ross Casey will preview Bristol City’s matches from a betting angle. After finding a 13/8 winner last week against Walsall he is on for a hat-trick, so where does he think your money should be going on Friday against Notts County?

After picking up a scrappy win away from home last week thanks to a Sam Baldock penalty and a (Steve Cotterill assisted!) penalty save from Simon Moore, the table looks a lot more healthy for us Robins fans! Currently seven points clear from the drop zone, with 12 points still to play for another win here could see us mathematically safe and we can all breathe a huge sigh of relief.

The fixture list has handed us four back-to-back relegation strugglers for our run-in – we face Notts County, Crewe, Stevenage and Crawley – who will all be fighting for survival so all matches should prove competitive.

BRISTOL CITY – 5/4 (Various)
NOTTS COUNTY – 12/5 (Various)
DRAW – 13/5 (Various)

Bristol City have been made favourites with the bookies to win this match on Good Friday – with best odds available at 5/4. This is in large part to our prolonged form as we have lost just one match in our last nine with our home form even more impressive. At Ashton Gate we boast a record of one loss in our last 11 games!

Even more pleasingly after a season of defensive frailties, hiccups and downright cock-ups, we have now kept three clean sheets in our last six games. I actually tipped us to keep a clean sheet last week – but I shall not be doing that here. For those of you who fancy that bet though, we are a best price 23/10.

Sam Baldock was our goalscoring hero last week taking his league goal tally to 21 – making him joint top scorer in the whole of League One along with Britt Assombalonga and Callum Wilson. Our captain is 5/2 to finish top scorer.

Interestingly, Baldock netted penalties in both fixtures against Walsall and having already scored from the spot at Notts County – is it written in the stars he nets another here? He is 7/5 best price to score in this game and we are the big price of 13/2 to score a penalty.

Notts County’s short term form is very, very good. The Magpies have won four of their last five matches – a sequence that has lifted them out of the relegation zone – albeit by goal difference. Fortunately for us though, their away form is nothing short of pitiful. They have picked up just three wins from 25 and they were against fellow strugglers Colchester, Stevenage and Crewe.

They also picked up a draw at Anfield this season though. Funny old game isn’t it?! I think that thanks to their recent run they will manage to hit the net on Friday – they have only failed to score in eight of their 25 away games this season.

In terms of goalscorers they have a few threats. James Spencer is an old school number 9 who will hold the ball up well, be aggressive in his play and be an aerial threat throughout. He has scored three goals in his last two appearances and is 3/1 to score. In the words of the late Gorilla Monsoon, the battle between him and Nyron Nosworthy could well be the irresistible force against the immovable object.

Their two wingers Jack Grealish and former Robin Jamal Campbell-Ryce have terrorised defences in recent weeks and will be a constant threat. I think we will probably match their formation to have two wingers protecting our full-backs. JCR actually matched his league tally of two Bristol City goals in 52 appearances with his brace against Port Vale last week! The pint sized winger is 11/2 to score against his former team.

We drew the reverse fixture 1-1 back in December with both sides scoring penalties. That is the most likely score in the correct score market – it’s priced up at 7/1.

The last time we met at Ashton Gate was an FA Cup encounter back in 2005 where we suffered another early exit losing 2-0. We played a back four including Kelly Youga and David Partridge that day – not sure how we didn’t keep a clean sheet! For anyone playing ‘where’s Kelly Youga’, he actually lined up for AFC Wimbledon against Bristol Rovers last week!

Our home form against Notts in the league is far more impressive – we are currently unbeaten in our last six matches! Here’s hoping we take that run to seven on Friday and get closer to safety in the process.

Over 2.5 goals @ 3/4 – BET NOW

These teams both get involved in gluttony for goals. Nine of our last 12 matches have seen three or more goals scored and six of the last seven County games have followed suit. I fancy over 2.5 goals at an almost evens price of 3/4.

*All prices supplied by easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Fri 17th April 2014*

The Exiled Robin

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