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Friday, 25 April 2014

Bookies Corner: Bristol City v Crewe

In this weekly article for The Exiled Robin, lifelong Bristol City fan and easyodds.com football tipster Ross Casey will preview Bristol City’s matches from a betting angle. After correctly tipping three matches in a row can he find the value again for Saturday’s match against Crewe??!

Who would have thought Steve Cotterill was capable of the revival we have had under his helm? After taking over the club in 23rd position he has guided us to 12th place and theoretically we could finish 8th – whoda thunk it? With a superior goal difference to those around us, two convincing wins could leave us two spots off the play-offs!

We now face a Crewe side in real relegation danger in our final home match of the season and the players will be committed to giving us fans a good send-off in front of the East End which will be closed as of next season for reconstruction.

BRISTOL CITY – 6/5 (BetVictor)
CREWE – 27/10 (MarathonBet)
DRAW – 13/5 (Bet365)

We have hit a purple patch of form recently and as Steve Cotterill has described we are in an upwards trajectory as of late. The run is now just one loss in 11 and we have averaged exactly two goals per game in that sequence. We can thank the signing of Wade Elliott as the turning point, with his experience and talent pushing the rest of the players along in midfield.

Our home form has been even better – we have lost just once in our last 12 matches at Ashton Gate. In fact we have only lost six matches all season at Ashton Gate – if we were able to have turned a few of our nine draws into wins perhaps we could have pushed even further up the table. We are available at a best price of 6/5 to win the game, with Bet365 offering the best price of 13/5 on the draw.

Interestingly, of our six losses at Ashton Gate we have lost 2-1 four times. With Crewe fighting for their lives and on a run of three away wins on the bounce, that is available at a best price of 23/2 with 188Bet.

Sam Baldock has scored four goals in his last three games, taking his season tally to 26 in all competitions and making him the current League One top goalscorer with 24. He is currently a best price of 4/1 to open the scoring.

Crewe have got everything to play for in this match. The Railwaymen are just one clear of the relegation zone with two games left to play – against us and a home tie against Preston. With Carlisle having a game in hand and their current away form far superior to that at Gresty Road, they could see this as a more than winnable game.

They have won three on the bounce away from home which is an amazing return for a team struggling at the wrong end of the League One table. Keeping clean sheets is an issue for them though – they have managed just one clean sheet away from home all season - that is a success rate of just 4%. Both teams to score is available at the best price of 8/13. The lack of clean sheets is not down to former City keeper Steve Phillips though – he has lost his place between the sticks to 20 year-old Ben Garratt. This could well mean that goals will be on the agenda and over 3.5 goals is available at 19/10.

Their very good away form is in stark contrast to their home form. Crewe have failed to win any of their last seven home matches but have lost just two of their last eight away games. If you fancy Crewe to take at least a point they are a best price of 8/11 in the double chance market (draw or Crewe win.

Believe it or not but according to the history books Crewe have NEVER won an away game at Ashton Gate. We have won six and drawn two against the Railwaymen in league matches at the Gate. Boy do they need to create history tomorrow! That is in stark contrast to our cup form against them. We have played four and failed to win any cup matches against Crewe – drawing once and losing three times.

The last time we met in at Ashton Gate was a League One game back in 2006 where we managed to pick up a 2-1 win against a Crewe side with a strike force of Ryan Lowe, Nicky Maynard and Luke Varney. The goals that day were scored by Scott Murray and Scott Brown. The 2-1 final score to Bristol City is available at 17/2.

Sam Baldock anytime scorer @ 11/10

Sam Baldock is in tremendous form and now has in-form attacking players setting him up at will. He is desperate to finish as top scorer in League One this season and with Crewe proving almost incapable of keeping an away clean sheet and with our captain on penalty duty, I think a decent bet here is Sam Baldock to score at 11/10.

*All prices supplied by easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Friday 25th April 2014*

The Exiled Robin

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