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Friday, 24 October 2014

Bookies Corner: Barnsley v Bristol City

I'm delighted to say that after a short break, Easyodds.com football tipster and Bristol City fan Ross Casey is back this week with a betting column on City’s trip to Oakwell to face Danny Wilson’s Barnsley. After the late slip-up preventing us of three points at Ashton Gate in midweek, can we take the win at Barnsley like we have in three of our last four visits?  Keep reading below for Ross’ full betting preview including his most pertinent trends and oddities…

BRISTOL CITY – 11/10 (Multiple)
BARNSLEY – 59/20 (MarathonBet)
DRAW – 13/5 (Multiple)

It doesn’t take a genius to see a trend in Bristol City’s matches that we score goals. In sixteen matches this term we have only failed to hit the net once and that was against Orient when Baldock’s goal was disallowed for no reason at all.

It is not just the fact we are scoring that is so pleasing – 14 of our 20 outfield players to play first team football this season have hit the net. The wide range of goal threats we have is brilliant for keeping opposition teams on their toes.

With all of these goals flying in it is of little surprise that there are some interesting betting trends regarding goals. If you live to bet on the over/under line you can pretty much guarantee a winning bet on a Bristol City fixture going over 2.5 goals – in eight of our last nine matches three or more goals have been scored! Over 2.5 is available at 3/4.

I find the first goal brackets interesting in our matches too – four of our last six fixtures have had an opening goal scored in the opening 10 minutes. The bookies haven’t seemed to latch on to this trend as yet as the best price available is a tempting 16/5.

Unfortunately we have lost the ability to keep clean sheets in our most recent matches. After a run of three shut-outs in a row stopping at Port Vale we have now conceded at least one goal in each of our last seven matches. Both teams to score is the option here at 13/20. If you were to choose between this and over 2.5 goals I would go with overs as that has slightly better profit margins.

An interesting statistic about Danny Wilson’s Barnsley this season is that they are do or die at home. In eight matches on home soil they are yet to draw a match. Considering we have drawn just one of our last 10 fixtures at Oakwell it is perhaps unsurprising that the draw is the least likely outcome in the full-time result market at 13/5.

Encouragingly for Steve Cotterill is the really embarrassing statistic that Barnsley have conceded a huge 12 goals in their last four at Oakwell. For a defence featuring Lewin Nyatanga I find this hard to believe! With this in mind take your pick from the starting line-up on Saturday and back some Robins players to hit the back of the net. Easyodds.com offers all of our stars from Aaron Wilbraham at 6/4 all the way down to Derrick Williams at 12/1.

Speaking of former players, I love backing ex –players to score as they seem to have that extra spring in their step when playing former clubs. Look at the proof of Leroy Lita’s hat-trick for Middlesbrough at Ashton Gate for proof of that!

He is 11/5 to score against us again and Lewin Nyatanga is 20/1. The way we defended set plays on Tuesday night may well prove that to be a whacky but wonderful wager! Andy Cole’s son Devante is on-loan at Barnsley from Manchester City and has impressed with his pace and willing running so far. He will give Aden Flint all sorts of problems if he plays on the shoulder of our line. He has scored 5 in 13 this season and has scored in his last two matches – his best price to score against our defence is 13/5.

We are pretty successful against Barnsley in terms of our win/loss record. We have 41 wins to their 30 but the last time these sides met at Oakwell we lost 1-0 to a Tykes side that had 10 men for the last 40 minutes. Oh how I don’t miss those Championship years of depressing losses after hard fought draws!

I genuinely do think that Devante Cole has a bright future ahead of him and using our price comparison service I have found some good value on him scoring two or more goals in this match. With back-to-back goals for the young forward and our no clean sheet in seven, he looks a good bet at 16/1 to score two or more. Most bookies are around 9/1 on this bet but Bet365 are offering almost double that at 16/1.

First Goal Between 1-10 Minutes @ 16/5 – BET NOW

I like this trend that I have sniffed out and whilst it may be over within 11 minutes I think the bookies have underestimated how keen Barnsley are to concede and us Robins to score! 4 in 6 is a decent trend plus Joe Bryan missed out JUST with his 11th minute strike at Walsall. Here’s hoping for another quick start!

*All prices supplied by www.easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Fri 24th October 2014*

The Exiled Robin

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