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Wednesday, 19 March 2014

Bookies Corner: Colchester v City

In a brand new feature for The Exiled Robin, lifelong Bristol City fan and easyodds.com football tipster Ross Casey will preview Bristol City’s upcoming matches from a betting angle.  I can’t always promise he’ll give you a ‘totally’ unbiased view, but where does he think your money should be going on Saturday?!

City go into their League One clash with Colchester on Saturday with both sides on 42 points. Colchester are now 17th - a single place behind us, with an exact same goal difference (minus 5) although the U’s do have a game in hand.

Both teams are still certainly in the relegation fight along with probably eight other teams. Ten don’t go into four, and there are sure to be many twists and turns between now and the end of the season – the result here will play a huge part for both teams.

City are now a best price 15/1 for relegation, whilst Colchester are 8/1 to go down – showing the bookies know that Steve Cotterill is a winner!

DRAW – 23/10

Colchester have lost six of their last 10 games – a poor run of results which improved with Tuesday night’s 1-0 victory over relegation bound Shrewsbury. They are made underdogs for Saturday – despite home advantage – with the bookies making them a best price 19/10.

They have struggled for goals at home this season, scoring just 22 in 19 on home soil. Their best hope of a goal is probably Jabo Ibehre, who is top scorer this year for Colchester, with seven league goals. He is a best price 15/8 to net against us. Someone with probably an extra incentive to score is Freddie Sears. The ‘scorer’ of THAT phantom goal for Crystal Palace back in 2009, he was robbed of his goal after the linesman adjudged it to have hit the advertising board, not the back of the net. It sent his then manager Neil Warnock into a fit of rage, much to the pleasure of those in red at Ashton Gate. The former West Ham youngster is 5/2 to score at anytime.

Another interesting statistic about Colchester this season is the fact they tend to be involved in matches where both teams DO NOT score. Both teams have found the target in just six of the last 17 matches involving the Essex side. Both teams not to score is a best price 6/5 – a decent shout considering we now have THE WALL that is Nyron Nosworthy in the heart of our defence!

You may find it odd that we are favourites to win the match when considering we have won just four of our 18 league matches away from home, but such is our form, that it actually probably makes sense.

We are on a run of just one loss in our last eight league games and we’ve conceded just one goal since the loss of Aden Flint and Adam El-Abd through injury and suspension. In classic OTIB mood swing terms – that’s promotion form! We are a best price 5/2 to keep a clean sheet for the second match in a row - something we have managed just once this season.

Scoring goals away from home hasn’t been a problem (we have netted 28 away from home this season) and only five sides have managed more in League One. Sam Baldock scored against Colchester in the reverse fixture and he is favourite to score with the bookies at 7/5. Baldock has now scored 18 goals and is joint second top scorer behind Peterborough’s Britt Assombalonga on 19. The City captain is 9/2 to be crowned League One top scorer – which would surely help his price tag if he is to leave this summer.

Our last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw at Ashton Gate – a soft goal from Matthew Taylor who has now returned to Bradford after his loan ended - was met by a positive response from the Robins. A heap of second half pressure meant we managed to win 15 corners in all, but were unable to profit beyond a Sam Baldock equaliser.

We have never played at the Weston Homes Community Stadium – our last visit to Colchester was at the undesirably compact Layer Road, where we won a Championship game 2-1 thanks to goals from Dele Adebola and Michael McIndoe back in 2008. Despite the late red card to Bradley Orr for a second booking we managed to hold onto the lead. Spookily enough, this followed a 1-1 draw at home earlier in the season – in a match where Ivan Sproule scored! Seven goals in 67 starts isn’t such a great record – but he was bloody fast wasn’t he? A 2-1 City win on Saturday would complete the symmetry and is available at a best price of 10/1.

Bristol City to win @ 8/5 – BET NOW
With Scott Wagstaff and Stephen Pearson returning, we have also made the decent signings of Nyron Nosworthy and Martin Paterson. Add to that the fact that Adam El Abd is suspended, and I am confident enough to stick my neck out on an away win on our very first visit to the Weston Homes Community Stadium at a best price of 8/5.

*All prices supplied by easyodds.com and prices all correct as of Weds 19th March 2014*

The Exiled Robin

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